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[TheActuary]

Wild Rose was my saving grace on Saturday with the abysmal running of Yeadon and Orpenindeed. How optimistic I was having secured an excellent price on the later only to watch as the horse fell in to a heap when put under pressure.

así es la vida!

I am giving everything a swerve including Hallingdal and Sharpazmax in the 6.50 and my first interest will be in the 7.20 Blue Tango Sporting Life 14-1 The worry is, this is the first meeting with form from the newly resurfaced Lingfield which recorded very slow times on the 2nd October so it hard to ignore the likely fav Cape Marien who will set the bench mark for the accuracy of my going allowance.

8.20 Daniella De Bruijn is my second selection 3-1 Sporting Life coming back in trip after winning in above average time for a claimer at Wolvs.
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[TheActuary]

[TheActuary]

One of the best AW days for awhile coming up tomorrow. Lets hope the results mirror that sentiment.

A few bridesmaids of interest for me at Lingfield 3.30 with Hightime Heroine Mark Of Meydan and Tamasou 5-1 Sporting Life. I am taking the later as the last run to me suggested this shorter trip would be preferable.

2 at Wolverhampton in the evening will be 6.50 Stanley Goodspeed 7-2 Sporting Life looks by far the best of those with AW form

Serafinas Flight 5-1 Sporting Life ticks the boxes in the 7.20 being well drawn with a above average SF from Kempton over 1m suits 7f32y at Wolvs well.
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[TheActuary]

3rd October 2009 a race meeting at Wolverhamptons Dunstall Park record the following race times.

1m 141y Class 4 2yo 1:49:78
5f 216y Class 6 3yo+ 1:13:34
5f 216y Class 5 2yo 1:13:67
5f 20y Class 6 2yo 1:01:54
7f 32y Class 5 3yo 1:26:56
1m 141y Class 5 3yo+ 1:46:96
1m 1f 103y Class 6 3yo 1:59:42
1m 4f 50y Class 5 3yo+ 2:38:83

Just 6 days later

5f 20y Class 5 3yo+ 1:02:49
1m 5f 194y Class 4 3yo+ 3:01:87
7f 32y Class 6 3yo+ 1:29:17
7f 32y Class 6 2yo 1:30:71
1m 141y Class 6 2yo 1:51:96
1m 1f 103y Class 5 3yo+ 2:01:13
5f 20y Class 5 3yo+ 1:02:92
5f 216y Class 5 3yo+ 1:14:28

It would be easy to assume that weather conditions have played a part and the course is running ‘Slow’ but in all my years of compiling figures I know that something has been done to the surface. From the trawling I did last night, whatever was done during this period doesn’t appear to be out in the public domain. I even wonder whether the Trainers have been informed by the Clerk of the Course. The figures look very similar to those at Lingfield where they have completely turned the surface over.

Where does this leave a Speed Handicapper?

If you create a ‘Going Allowance’ based upon these times you will elevate some very modest animals to Group 1 status with figures that they will never achieve again unless they meet identical conditions.

My view is finding winners at present at either Lingfield or Wolverhampton until the tracks settle down is likely to be pot luck. The implications on using this data is far reaching, not only due to the slow down causing condensed fields and traffic problems in running but the times being recorded corrupting form-lines and standards. Stay away, watch and wait for me.
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[TheActuary]

Some very trappy and tightly contest races today at Kempton.

Those that stand out on my ratings are Freedom Fire 2.55, Daniella De Bruijn 3.25, Magic Lantern 4.00 and Sehoy 5.00.

Freedom Fire coming back 2f is a slight negative but his LTO SF looks value at 5-1 given he was bumped and hampered so could well improve on that performance.

Magic Latern well outclassed LTO on turf in C2 and this is more the mark. Has early speed and hoping experience will pay dividends before the penny drops on the untried.

The other two I will watch with interest.
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[TheActuary]

Hopefully those that follow my blog got on Bahamian Lad 8-1 and Red Suede Shoes 5-1.

Always feel embarassed when the horses I post to a forum fail and those not posted go in. I am simply trying to post those that appear to be the cream to the forum so apologise.

Before I am banned for mentioning my blog there is no need to visit. Here are my top rated for todays cards.

As I am not particularly happy with Lingfield at present hope this will not be to embarassing

14th October 2009 Lingfield
1.30 News International Handicap (Div I) (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-75) Winner £2,730 10 runners 1m
101.0% Trueblue Wizard
100.7% Prince Of Thebes
100.6% You´ve Been Mowed

2.00 E B F Smiths News Novice Stakes (CLASS 4)(2yo) Winner £5,181 4 runners 1m
No Horses with AWT Form

2.30 News International Handicap (Div II) (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-75) Winner £2,730 10 runners 1m
101.1% Hip Hip Hooray
100.3% Bull Market
100.3% Baariq
100.3% Astrodonna

3.05 E B F Menzies Distribution Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £3,886 14 runners 7f
98.7% Lady Hetherington
96.4% Allannah Abu
95.7% Professor Bollini

3.35 Mail Newspapers Classified Claiming Stakes (Div I) (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-70) Winner £1,706 12 runners 7f
101.5% Monashee Rock
101.2% Jeremiah
99.9% Romantic Queen

4.10 Mail Newspapers Classified Claiming Stakes (Div II) (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-70) Winner £1,706 12 runners 7f
101.0% Dichoh
100.6% Royal Envoy
99.9% Art Market

4.45 Bedfords Handicap (CLASS 5)(3yo 0-70) Winner £2,730 10 runners 1m2f
102.0% Noble Dictator
100.5% Global Conquest
99.6% Colangnik

5.15 Citipost Direct Distribution Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-65) Winner £2,047 14 runners 2m
100.4% Mymateeric
99.6% Sa Nau
99.5% Star Of Pompey
99.5% Brad´s Luck


14th October 2009 Kempton
5.45 TurfTV Handicap (CLASS 7)(3yo+ 0-50) Winner £2,047 14 runners 1m4f
100.7% Mr Plod
100.7% Duneen Dream
100.6% Little Sark

6.20 Groomed To Perfection, Kia Soul Classified Stakes (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-55) Winner £2,047 14 runners 1m
100.0% Highland Starlight
99.5% Winterfell
99.1% Cake Stand

6.50 Buy A £10,000 Racing Post Bonus Yearling Maiden Stakes (CLASS 4)(2yo) Winner £3,886 13 runners 1m
100.5% Robust Wish
99.3% Dahaam
99.0% Christmas Coming

7.20 digibet Handicap (CLASS 4)(3yo 0-85) Winner £4,727 14 runners 1m
101.9% Laudatory
101.1% Audemar
100.9% Sunshine Always

7.50 digibet.com Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6)(2yo) Winner £2,047 12 runners 6f
100.0% Lady Pattern
100.0% Shark Man
98.6% Theladyisatramp

8.20 digibet Casino Nursery (CLASS 6)(2yo 0-65) Winner £2,047 12 runners 6f
100.0% Pepi Royal
99.4% Tucker´s Law
99.1% Kate Skate

8.50 Levy Board Handicap (CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80) Winner £4,727 14 runners 7f
102.2% Ektimaal
100.8% Secret Witness
100.6% Perfect Silence

9.20 Racing UK Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-52) Winner £2,047 12 runners 6f
100.2% Malapropism
100.0% Dilli Dancer
99.8% Zim Ho
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[TheActuary]

Played the get out of Jail Free card today. I was expecting a poor Lingfield but dissapointed with Kempton. Being positive and viewed from level stakes 5-1 and 12-1 winners over 15 races = a profit.

15th October 2009 Wolverhampton

5.30 Dine In The Horizons Restaurant Apprentice Handicap (CLASS 7)(3yo+ 0-50) Winner £2,184 13 runners 1m141y
100.9% Herbert Crescent
100.8% Gifted Heir
99.8% Gracechurch

6.00 BOS Magazine Fillies´ Handicap (CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80) Winner £5,046 12 runners 5f20y
101.4% Feelin Foxy
101.3% Metal Guru
101.0% Cayman Fox

6.30 European Breeders´ Fund Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5)(2yo) Winner £3,562 13 runners 5f216y
99.9% Barlaman
99.2% I´Malwaysright
96.1% True To Form

7.00 ELBO Betting Service For Independent Bookmakers Handicap (CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-85) Winner £5,046 4 runners 2m119y
100.7% John Forbes
99.9% Penang Princess

7.30 Enjoy The Lucky 7 Group Offer Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6)(3yo) Winner £2,388 13 runners 1m1f103y
100.8% Gaily Noble
100.7% Royal Crest
100.6% Inconspicuous Miss

8.00 Independent Bookmakers Service Elbo Launches Today Nursery (CLASS 4)(2yo 0-85) Winner £4,533 10 runners 1m141y
101.1% Sejanus
99.5% Lethal Combination
98.5% The Starboard Bow

8.30 Sponsor A Race By Calling 01902 390000 Handicap (CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) Winner £2,914 9 runners 1m1f103y
102.1% Arashi
101.8% Hucking Heat
101.7% Kildare Sun

9.00 Enjoy Ringside Entertainment After Racing Handicap (CLASS 6)(3yo 0-65) Winner £2,388 12 runners 1m4f50y
102.0% Admirable Duque
101.5% Royal Keva
101.3% Supernoverre
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